The experts consulted by the organization have elevated international risks above all others for the coming years.

Brazil's Central Bank fears that the tariff war launched by U.S. President Donald Trump will disrupt the country's financial stability over the next three years, according to the latest Financial Stability Report for the second quarter of 2025.

The experts consulted by the organization have ranked international risks above all others for the coming years. Fiscal challenges are next in importance, despite the decrease in the number of mentions, "with concerns about the sustainability of public debt and the evolution of fiscal policy," they explain in the document.

The central bank also highlights operational risks stemming primarily from cyber risks, which are increasingly affecting more governments and businesses. Finally, issues related to liquidity and the risk of contagion have gained importance.

ECONOMIC CYCLE PESSIMISM

Regarding macroeconomic projections, the central bank presents "a slightly more negative perception of the economic cycle," with an increased forecast of contraction in the future.

At the same time, the perception of an upward trend in household leverage has increased, although most continue to consider the economy "stable."